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Author Topic: 3-10-10 FCST: TX/OK/AR/LA/MS  (Read 204 times)
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AGabrielson
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« on: Mar 08, 2010, 01:29:AM »

Another system midweek should offer up more severe weather, though instability and moisture don't seem to be nearly the problem they will be for Monday, keeping an eye specifically on North-East-Central parts of Texas but that is always subject to change more than a day out, something to get excited about, planning to chase if it stays together, terrain doesn't impact my decisions to chase...
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Chris
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« Reply #1 on: Mar 10, 2010, 09:21:AM »

Looking good today.  10% tor prob!  However looking like AR might be the play today.
Your thoughts on where you'd set up?
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AGabrielson
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« Reply #2 on: Mar 10, 2010, 09:56:AM »

Actually NE OK should be a storm producing machine, with multiple rounds of severe weather as it moves off into Arkansas... round 1 should fire between 2 and 3pm and round two should fire up by 6pm... dryline first then surface low! However I will venture into AR if that first round is good enough, looking hard at starting around I-35 in North central OK and then moving east... again initial development around 2pm.... Already an MD for watch possible regarding hail/wind in parts of central TX!

Andy
www.findthetornado.com
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rhill
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« Reply #3 on: Mar 10, 2010, 10:00:AM »

Agree with you Andy. But you couldn't pay me enough to chase in northwest Arkansas. It is impossible to have much success. Been burned there many times with fast storm motion and winding SLOW roads. I'd play either the cold core upper low along I-35 OR the dryline down towards Henrietta. Both areas are chasable. Too far for me for one day. Good luck out there and make sure you bring your agent orange and machetti! You'll need it LOL!

I have to ask. Do you have a job or is chasing your job?  You remind me of me 10 years ago when I took off from work every chance I could until I just quit and chased full time. Flexibility is awesome! But, dang, you start to get burned out doing it all the time no matter how many tubes you see. Thus I just don't jump anymore to every potential event.

Enjoy! I'll be watching the cam!!!!

Roger
« Last Edit: Mar 10, 2010, 10:04:AM by rhill » Logged
Patrick
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« Reply #4 on: Mar 10, 2010, 10:06:AM »

I'd set up between Winfield KS and Arkansas City KS, although it is highly possible the low is going to track further south requiring a target down toward Tulsa OK.  Essentially want to be just north and east of the surface low during daylight hours.  I'd pass on AR all together unless I had night vision goggles, LOL.  
« Last Edit: Mar 10, 2010, 10:09:AM by Patrick » Logged
AGabrielson
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« Reply #5 on: Mar 10, 2010, 10:09:AM »

This is it Roger, other than when I return home for a few weeks to help with harvest this year or when I am up north chasing and help around the farm. After all the chases last year I didn't, I really love what I am out here doing and I love sharing my experience with people who may not have the chance to do this as often or even at all, the farm takes good care of me though and allows me the funding and time to chase, it's really a great opportunity and maybe it won't always be there, so I guess I am just enjoying life, you know, never let an opportunity pass... thanks again for all the nice things you have said Roger.

I am starting along I-35 actually, we will see how that first round goes...

Live video of course at www.severestudios.com or www.findthetornado.com
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rhill
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« Reply #6 on: Mar 10, 2010, 11:35:AM »

I hear ya Andy! Good luck out there my friend! You really do remind me alot of me in years past. Storms are and will always be my passion in life, just like they are with you. Life is too dang short NOT to do what you want to as long as funding allows. And not only chasing, but providing a great community service. I too, report everything I see via ham radio or cell phone.

Farming is great. We had 1200 acres in northeast Kansas growing up and had about 400 head of Black Angus and also grew wheat and corn. Loved it!! And it sounds like you do too. Very cool!

I totally agree on your I-35 take. I'd take the flat lands and play the cold core setup where I can actually chase rather than blast off into the sticks. That corridor between Enid/Ponca City is looking sweet and then of course northeastward as the low lifts out. I remember many chases in the Kiamichi's and the Ozarks in northwest Arkansas and although you CAN get lucky and catch something, you just can't stay up with it. But you never know. Hey looking at things there is a SIGNIFICANT threat for landspout type tornadoes along the trailing boundary, especially according to the WRF.

Good luck and if you need anything give me a shout! I'll be glued to Severe Studios this afternoon  

Roger
 
« Last Edit: Mar 10, 2010, 11:42:AM by rhill » Logged
rhill
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« Reply #7 on: Mar 10, 2010, 02:37:PM »

Oooooh, don't like what I am seeing.The elevated storms may do their dastardly deed and trash things. Latest RUC NEVER destabilizes things in OK/KS anymore due to early convection/cirrus shield. If this verifies, the only play will be Arkansas/LA/MS areas. Ouch.

Can't give up yet, but I am not very optomistic of anything really significant happening. Maybe a few marginal hailers and a weak tube or funnel.

Roger
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